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The Most Important Secret in the World: 20 Questions to End War and Disease

Keywords

war-on-disease, 1-percent-treaty, medical-research, public-health, peace-dividend, decentralized-trials, dfda, dih, victory-bonds, health-economics, cost-benefit-analysis, clinical-trials, drug-development, regulatory-reform, military-spending, peace-economics, decentralized-governance, wishocracy, blockchain-governance, impact-investing

Message someone you love:

“Either I am crazy or I have discovered the most important secret in the history of the universe. Can you call me and tell me which?”

When they call back, walk them through the questions below. Not a speech. Ask in order. Wait for each answer.

These are 20 questions. Each one follows from the last. If you can say “no” to any of them, stop me and tell me which one.

1. Is disease your body breaking in ways that can be physically fixed?

Yes. We find first treatments for 15 new diseases every year. There are 6,650 still waiting. Your body is made of atoms. Atoms follow rules. When you figure out the rules, you fix the disease. There is no physical law preventing this. There is only a waiting list.

2. Do we already have what we need to work through that list faster?

Yes. There are 9,500 drugs already proven safe. 99.7% (95% CI: 99%-100%) of the diseases they might treat have never been tested. Not because the tests are impossible. Because nobody paid for them.

3. If someone paid for them, would the money actually produce cures?

Yes. During COVID, the RECOVERY trial tested 6 treatments on 48,000 patients for $500 (95% CI: $400-$2,500) per patient instead of the usual $41,000 (95% CI: $20,000-$120,000). One of those treatments, dexamethasone, saved over a million lives. Panicking scientists with no money did better than the normal system does on purpose. The method works. It just needs funding.

4. Where is all the money going instead?

Governments maintain 12,241 nuclear warheads. That is enough to end civilization 122 times. You can only end it once. The other 122 minus 1 apocalypses sit in storage, being expensive. Governments spend 604 (95% CI: 453-894) more on military than on clinical trials. Your chance of dying from terrorism: 1 in 30 million2. Your chance of dying from disease: 100%.

5. What if you moved 1% of military spending to clinical trials?

That is the 1% Treaty157 158. Everyone reduces 1%, so everyone still has the same number of missiles pointed at each other. Nobody is easier to invade than before. Everyone has 1% fewer missiles pointed at them. We gain 12.3x (95% CI: 4.2x-61.4x) more clinical trials. Disease eradication goes from 443 years (95% CI: 324 years-712 years) to 36 years (95% CI: 11.6 years-77.1 years). In our lifetime instead of centuries.

6. How many people die while we wait?

About 104 per minute. 150 thousand per day. That counter has been running since you picked up the phone.

7. How many are suffering right now?

About 2.4 billion. Every day we wait, each of them spends one more day sick. That is 2.4 billion additional days of suffering created every single day. Tomorrow adds another 2.4 billion. Multiply by however long we take to decide.

8. Do the people who control military budgets also get sick and die?

Yes. Cancer does not check your net worth. Alzheimer’s doesn’t care who you voted for. Every president, prime minister, general, and billionaire gets sick and dies of the same diseases as everyone else. So do their parents, spouses, and children. Most haven’t stopped to think about it. They’re too busy worrying about the next election to notice they’re dying too.

9. Has public pressure ever forced a change this large before?

Every time. Every major change that reached 3.5% (95% CI: 1%-10%) active public support has succeeded. Abolition. Women’s suffrage. Civil rights. Zero failures in the last century66. We figured out that number and then never used it on purpose.

10. If 3.5% (95% CI: 1%-10%) is enough, why do you need more than that?

You don’t. But the 1% Treaty is an even easier case: we’re not asking anyone to give something up. We’re asking them to trade 122 apocalypses for 122 minus 1, in exchange for curing disease in their lifetime. At 50% of the global population, 4.13 billion people, no government on Earth holds out. Not out of virtue. Out of survival.

11. Is there a path from one person to 4.13 billion?

Yes. If every person who agrees gets 2 others to agree, and each of those gets 2 more, the count doubles every round. After 32 doublings you reach 4.3 billion. More than half of humanity.

12. How long does that take?

If each person shares and their 2 people share the next day: 32 days. If it takes a week: about 8 months.

13. Does every single person in the chain need to keep it going?

No. Most won’t. That’s fine. In every successful movement, most people did nothing. On average, each person just needs to reach 1 new person who keeps going.

14. Can you think of anything you could do in 30 seconds that would prevent more death and suffering?

No. Not donating to charity. Not volunteering. Not any other action at any price. Curing disease decades sooner prevents more suffering than anything else you can do right now. Sharing this takes 30 seconds. The silence you’re about to fill is the point. Whatever you come up with will be smaller than what you just gave up.

15. What do you personally get out of this?

An estimated $3.48 million (95% CI: $1.05 million-$9.82 million) in lifetime wealth for a typical person. Disease costs you money every year in insurance, lost wages, caregiving, and taxes. Curing it doesn’t just save lives. It makes you richer.

16. What does sharing cost?

About 30 seconds. Less time than explaining why you didn’t. You’re not being asked to donate money, attend a rally, or change your life. You’re being asked to pass this to 2 people and ask them what they think.

17. Can you think of anything else you could do with 30 seconds that would add $3.48 million (95% CI: $1.05 million-$9.82 million) to your lifetime wealth?

No. Your 30 seconds have never been this valuable. They will never be this valuable again.

18. So the trade is: 30 seconds of your time, and in exchange we drop from 122 apocalypses to 122 minus 1, disease gets eradicated in our lifetime, the people we love are protected, and our lifetime income goes up by $3.48 million (95% CI: $1.05 million-$9.82 million)?

Yes. That is the trade.

19. Will you vote at warondisease.org right now, before you read the next question?

The vote takes 15 seconds. These questions aren’t going anywhere. The people dying aren’t waiting for you.

20. Will you share this with 2 people and ask each of them to keep the chain going?

Yes. Two people. Thirty seconds. The only thing that stops the wave is one person in the chain deciding “later.” Is that person you?

30 seconds × 4.13 billion people = the 1% Treaty exists = disease eradicated in decades instead of centuries.

If They Argue With You

  • “Defense contractors will crush this.” Defense contractors keep 99% of their budget under the treaty. The Victory Incentive Alignment Bond pays them 272% returns on top. They make more money going along with this than fighting it. Lobbyists do not have beliefs. They have clients. This gives them a better client.

  • “Big Pharma will block this. They profit from sick people.” Pharma currently spends about $1 billion per drug and fails 90% of the time. They’re not profiting from disease. They’re gambling on disease. Under this plan, they get paid per patient enrolled in trials. Revenue instead of cost. A guaranteed paycheck instead of a casino. Pharma won’t block this. They’ll trample each other to sign up.

  • “Politicians will never vote for this.” Correct. That’s why the plan doesn’t ask them to be saints. A Super PAC rewards every politician who votes yes. Campaign support when they’re running. Good jobs after they leave office. The campaign budget is about eight times what defense lobbyists currently spend per year. Politicians do whatever gets them re-elected.

  • “This sounds like bribery.” You’re describing lobbying. Same lobbying firms, same campaign contributions, same revolving door, same wine. The only difference is what the money buys. Current lobbying buys missile contracts. This buys clinical trials. If one kind of lobbying feels normal and the other feels shocking, that’s worth noticing. Also: this plan caps the lobbying portion at 20% and puts every dollar where everyone can see it. Try finding a government budget that’s more transparent than that.

  • “The FDA and NIH already handle clinical trials.” The NIH spends about 3.3% (95% CI: 2%-5%) of its budget on actual trials. The rest is buildings and paperwork. The FDA blocks safe drugs for years even after safety is confirmed. For every 1 person saved from a bad drug, about 3,068 (95% CI: 2,878-3,125) die waiting for a good one. The current system is what we’re fixing, not competing with.

  • “Why not just reform the existing system instead?” People have been trying for fifty years. More funding: they hired more administrators. Different leadership: same results, fancier titles. New regulations: now takes 20 years instead of 17. Reform bills: killed in committee. The system isn’t broken. It works perfectly for the people who built it. They won’t surrender it because you asked nicely. They’ll surrender it when you outbid them. That’s what this plan does.

  • “I don’t have time to call everyone I love.” One call a day for six weeks. By the math we just went through, it’s the best use of five minutes you have until the treaty exists.

  • “My friends will think I’m weird.” Probably. They’ll also call you back, which is the whole point. Seeming weird is a one-time cost. Not calling costs 150 thousand lives per day the treaty doesn’t exist. Weird is cheaper.

  • “Nothing like this ever works. Big systems don’t change.” Communism was invented, took over half the planet, and collapsed in one human lifetime. No fax machines. Required mass murder. Was a genuinely terrible idea. This plan has the internet and an idea that asks people to click a button and call two people they love. If that can’t happen, the obstacle isn’t the system.

  • “War is human nature. Militaries are inevitable.” Switzerland spent 200+ years avoiding major wars on a fraction of the US defense budget. Life expectancy there is years higher than in the US. Costa Rica abolished its army in 1948. Nobody invaded. Both countries are still sovereign, and both are richer per capita for spending less on killing people. Nuclear weapons made territorial conquest mostly pointless in 1945. We’re still budgeting like it’s 1944.

  • “I don’t believe the 12.3 times number.” The RECOVERY trial already showed a 82x (95% CI: 50x-94.1x) cost reduction on real patients during the pandemic. The 12.3 number comes from how much funding divided by current trial slots. The math is at manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/economics/1-pct-treaty-impact. Offer the link. Don’t wait for them to read it before moving on.

  • “I want to think about it first.” “Thinking about it” is what everyone has been doing for decades. That’s why the treaty doesn’t exist yet. The questions we just walked through are the thinking. Anything beyond that is delay. Delay costs 150 thousand lives per day. Vote now. Think about it after. The vote is reversible. The deaths aren’t.